ERC funds two research projects exploring potential of AI in conflict forecasting and language description and preservation

Posted on: 14 July 2025

Two Trinity researchers are undertaking European Research Council-funded research projects exploring the potential of AI to address challenges in the areas of conflict forecasting and endangered language description and preservation.

Professor in Political Science Thomas Chadefaux is one of 150 new ERC Proof of Concept winners across Europe and one of only two in Ireland in the latest announcement of ERC funding grants. The award was announced today, Monday 14^th July.

Prof. Chadefaux will lead the project AICAP (Artificial Intelligence for Conflict Analysis and Prediction) analysing real-time geopolitical, economic, and behavioural data to forecast patterns in conflict development. The project seeks to provide early warning signals to policymakers, businesses, and NGOs, helping them act before crises escalate.

The €150K AICAP research project is a spin-off from a five-year ERC funded research project called PaCE (Patterns of Conflict Emergence), which is working to uncover recurring temporal patterns in the run up to wars, using machine learning methods and a wide range of data, from financial markets to satellite imagery.

Prof. Chadefaux will lead the project AICAP (Artificial Intelligence for Conflict Analysis and Prediction)

Prof. Chadefaux commented: “The goal of the AICAP project is to create predictive models and interactive tools to forecast conflict, through the use of advanced AI and multi-scale temporal pattern analysis. It aims to provide highly accurate insights and predictions for decision-makers across varied sectors.

“Conflict forecasting and expertise provided through AICAP will provide early warning systems for a range of organisations: for governments, enabling proactive diplomacy and strategic resource allocation; for NGOs to provide targeted interventions, optimising humanitarian and conflict resolution efforts; for corporations such as insurance companies and multinational corporations, to support potential risk assessments; and for media corporations, providing accurate and timely conflict analysis to inform public discourse and data driven reporting.

“AICAP promises to impact real-world conflict prevention and mitigation efforts, bridging the gap between theoretical research and practical solutions.”

Meanwhile, Associate Professor in Asian Studies Tim Bodt has this month kicked off his €1.5m ERC Starting Grant Project Lo-Rig (Biactantial Agreement in the Endangered Gongduk and Mönpa Languages of Bhutan). Prof. Bodt secured funding for this research in September 2024.

Prof. Bodt specialises in the documentation and historical reconstruction of under-described languages, particularly those of the southern slopes of the eastern Himalayas. Through fieldwork and computational approaches, this project aims to document, analyse, and promote these two unique languages of Bhutan before they disappear.

Prof. Tim Bodt commenced work on his €1.5m Lo-Rig project this month.

Prof. Bodt said: “I am extremely honoured that the ERC has granted me and my team the opportunity to fulfil the ambitions of the Lo-Rig project in the coming five years. I am also very happy and excited that Trinity College Dublin has offered me the opportunity to host me and my project here. I think the Lo-Rig project fits very well within the School of Linguistic, Speech and Communication Sciences and the Trinity Centre for Asian Studies.

“In the coming five years, we aim to make a meaningful contribution to the scientific knowledge of two poorly described and highly endangered languages and contribute to the preservation and promotion of these languages, while at the same time developing cutting-edge methodologies relying on the latest technological developments and increasing the knowledge and skills of all the participants in the project.”

Congratulating the two researchers, Dean of Research Prof. Sineád Ryan said:  “These two projects exemplify the depth and breadth of AHSS research at Trinity.  Prof. Chadefaux will create a working model based on his findings on conflict pattern prediction, Prof. Bodt's project will yield exciting new insights in the field of Sino-Tibetan linguistics by documenting two critically understudied and endangered languages. Both are highly ambitious, demonstrating the ability of the researchers to combine the rigour of 'traditional' research methods with emerging machine learning- and AI-driven approaches.”

The ERC, set up by the European Union in 2007, is the premier European funding organisation for excellent frontier research. It funds creative researchers of any nationality and age, to run projects based across Europe. The ERC offers four core grant schemes: Starting Grants, Consolidator Grants, Advanced Grants and Synergy Grants.

ERC Starting Grant awards support excellent Principal Investigators in starting their own independent research teams or programmes. These grants, which support five-year projects, are among the most sought-after and competitive in the world of research.

With its additional Proof of Concept Grant scheme, the ERC helps grantees explore the commercial or societal potential of their discoveries. The objective is to enable ERC-funded ideas to progress on the path from ground-breaking research towards innovation.

Since the inception of the ERC, Trinity has participated in 91 projects with a value of €139M. These two new awards will join 40 active projects hosted at Trinity, including Starting, Consolidator, Advanced and Synergy Grants. For more information on our past and present projects, see ERC Awards at Trinity for more information.

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