Trinity researcher to develop advanced AI-guided conflict prevention tools
Posted on: 27 January 2026
Thomas Chadefaux, Professor in Political Science in Trinity’s School of Social Sciences and Philosophy, has secured European Research Council Proof of Concept funding to develop tools that will bridge the gap between cutting-edge research and real-world conflict prevention.
The funding of €150,000 will help Prof. Chadefaux and colleagues progress project AICAP (Artificial Intelligence for Conflict Analysis and Prediction), which uses advanced AI to predict when and where conflicts will escalate.
By analysing patterns across multiple timescales and regions, AICAP forecasts conflict fatalities, protests, and migration with greater accuracy than existing models. The project will develop practical tools, including interactive dashboards and automated reports, that provide early warnings to governments, NGOs, companies, and media organisations.
Applications include early warning systems for proactive diplomacy, targeted humanitarian interventions, political risk assessment for insurance companies, informed investment decisions for businesses, and data-driven reporting for media outlets.
“Crucially, what sets AICAP apart is its focus on interpretability: predictions are not only highly accurate but also understandable and actionable for decision-makers,” said Prof. Chadefaux.
“AICAP has already demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to existing models and now we can work directly with governments, NGOs, and businesses to translate these insights into tools that help anticipate crises before they escalate. Our goal is to ensure decision-makers have the information they need to act early, when intervention is most effective.”
The ERC Proof of Concept scheme is funded under Horizon Europe, the EU’s framework programme for research and innovation.
President of the European Research Council, Prof. Maria Leptin, said: “The ERC does not ask its researchers to start with ready-made solutions or immediate applications. Instead, ERC grantees explore the frontiers of knowledge, guided by their curiosity and scientific ambition. With these Proof of Concept Grants, many ERC grantees will explore the commercialisation or societal potential of their curiosity. And they will lay the foundation for future technological innovations and societal technologies that drive progress in Europe.”
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