High skilled freelancers’ confidence in the Irish economy declines, but remains positive

Posted on: 15 January 2026

Early results from the 2026 Ireland’s Project Economy survey reveal that high skilled freelancers’ confidence in the Irish economy has declined but is still positive.

A 2026 Outlook published by Trinity Business School today contains early results from the annual Ireland’s Project Economy survey of high skilled independent contractors in Ireland. The survey of 1,287 high skilled freelancers was carried out in association with Contracting PLUS.

Ireland’s Project Economy 2026 Outlook indicates a drop in key indices relating to the performance of the Irish economy. The full Ireland’s Project Economy report will be published in March. 

“High skilled freelancers mainly work on projects involving innovation and business transformation, and this gives them early sight of business intentions to expand or contract. Early results from the 2026 survey indicate that high skilled freelancers are less confident in an improvement in Irish economic performance than they were last year,” explains Professor Na Fu, Chair of Responsible Leadership at Trinity Business School and co-author of the report.

However, high skilled freelancers’ fall in confidence in the Irish economy does not carry over to their expectation of a continued upward trend in the performance of their own business sector.  Just over half, 51% of contractors, expect their own business performance will increase over the next three to five years.  This is down from 55% last year.

Professor Andrew Burke, Chair of Business Studies at Trinity Business School and co-author of the report, said: “One firm’s adversity is another’s opportunity, is one way of describing the situation.  Challenging economic circumstances usually require dynamic solutions involving innovation and business transformation which are the core capabilities that high skilled freelancers provide.  So, it’s not too surprising to observe a fall in confidence in the macro economy occurring in tandem with continued, if slightly lower, optimism about the future of the project economy comprising a high proportion of expert contractors”.

The 2026 Outlook also reveals that Donald Trump’s trade policies are expected to have a negative impact on the high skilled freelance sector next year with 64% of respondents viewing them as having a negative effect on their business compared to just 8% expecting a positive impact.  

However, the net positive confidence indices’ scores, according to the authors, indicate that independent contractors expect both their sector and to a lesser extent, the Irish economy, will be able to counter the negative Trump effect leading to ongoing positive performance.

Jimmy Sheehan, Managing Director of Contracting PLUS, added: “We are proud to support this research. It shows a dip in confidence in the economy, but the project economy remains resilient. When organisations face uncertainty, they still need to deliver innovation and transformation, and they turn to independent professionals to get work done quickly. Ireland benefits most when we provide clear, consistent rules that support genuine independent working and high standards of compliance.”

The Ireland’s Project Economy 2026 Outlook reveals:

• Freelancers’ Irish economy confidence index score has fallen from +17 in 2025 to +6 for 2026, indicating a small majority expecting economic performance to improve.
• This fall in confidence is comprised of a decline in the percentage of freelancers expecting improvement in the economy, down from 46% last year to 37% this year.  
• The percentage expecting a decline in the Irish economy in 2026 has risen to 26% up from 17% who predicted a decline for 2025.
• The fall in confidence occurs across all the main industries in which high skilled freelancers work except for Engineering & Technical services where the confidence index has risen marginally from an almost neutral confidence score of +2.1 last year to +5.2 for 2026.
• The confidence index score for the Irish economy for those working in IT & Telecommunications has undergone the largest fall in confidence with a 13.9 index points decline since last year. Their confidence score rounds to zero (from 0.4) indicating that these freelancers expect the Irish economy to perform much the same as last year.
• Interestingly, high skilled freelancers’ fall in confidence in the Irish economy does not carry over to their belief in an upward trend in the performance of their own business sector. Just over half, 51% expect their own business performance will increase over the next three to five years.

More about Ireland’s Project Economy survey:

These findings are part of an early data release from the 2026 Irish Project Economy Report, set to be published in late spring. The independent research was conducted from mid-November to the end of the first week of December 2025 by Professors Andrew Burke and Na Fu of Trinity Business School and commissioned by Contracting PLUS. It draws on survey data from 1,287 participants across eight key sectors, providing valuable insights into economic trends and the role of the project economy in driving growth. Now in its sixth consecutive year, this unique study continues to highlight the economic power of Ireland’s Project Economy.

See the Trinity Business School website here for full details of Ireland’s Project Economy 2026 Outlook.

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