Experimental evidence on role models in Vietnam
| Researchers: | Gaia Narciso, Carol Newman and Finn Tarp |
| Partners: | University of Copenhagen, UNU-WIDER |
| Location: | Vietnam |
| Sample: | 582 ethnic minority households in the provinces of Lao Cai, Lai Chau, and Dien Bien in Vietnam |
| Timeline: | 2016–2020 |
| Theme: | Role models, ethnic miniorities |
Both information and role model provision have been shown to be highly effective in stimulating economic activities. But do such approaches work also for communities that are remote from knowledge exchange, new technological ideas, markets, and policy decision making? We present experimental evidence on the impact of a role models intervention that aims to inspire ethnic minority households to start businesses and diversify income sources. The research design enables us to disentangle the extent to which role models could shift behaviour by providing information or inspiration. We find that despite successful implementation of the intervention, which was powered to detect reasonably small effects, and a high level of compliance, the role model intervention did not impact on income, livelihoods, or other welfare outcomes. Our findings cast doubt over the generalizability of role model interventions in inducing behavioural change in contexts where populations are severely marginalized and face a variety of binding constraints.
Trade Diversion and Labour Market Adjustment: Vietnam and the US – China Trade War
| Researchers: | Karin Mayr-Dorn, Gaia Narciso, Duc Anh Dang and Hien Phan |
| Partners: | Irish Aid, Fulbright Association |
| Location: | Vietnam |
| Sample: | Between 128,000 and 135,000 working-age individuals per quarter from the Vietnam Labour Force Survey (LFS) |
| Timeline: | 2017-2019 |
| Theme: | Trade Diversion, Trade War |
This paper investigates the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on labour market outcomes in a third country, Vietnam. We exploit variation in the extent of U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese imports across industries as well as pre-existing industry employment patterns in Vietnam. We find that Vietnamese individuals and districts that are more exposed to the trade war experience higher employment and wages in the manufacturing sector. This is true in particular for women. Our findings reveal that bilateral trade policy can substantially affect labour markets in third countries.