Political Economy, Urban and Migration

TIME examines how institutions, policies, and social dynamics shape economic development, urban transformation, and migration outcomes. Through rigorous impact evaluation and applied economic research, it investigates topics such as housing and neighbourhood change, state capacity, migration and integration, urban services, labour markets, and community development across diverse international contexts.

Hacking Negative Immigration Attitudes and Stereotypes

Researchers:

Sara Giunti, Andrea Guariso, Mariapia Mendola and Irene Solmone

Partners: Helpcode
Location: Italy
Sample:

5,000 stundents enrolled in 240 classes, across 40 high-schools in the city of Milan and Genova in Italy

Timeline: 2022 -2023
Theme: Migration, Education
Description:

Major demographic shifts and global changes have contributed to the increasing diversity in the composition of the population in Italy. The country has been relentlessly involved in population aging and demographic decline, while at the same time turning from a historical emigration country to a major destination for (young) migrants and asylum seekers from neighbouring regions. This change in the demographic composition has significant implications for social integration at the local level, with major challenges posed by hostile attitudes towards immigrants and minority groups, including prejudices, discrimination, and xenophobia. This project investigates the potential role of educational programs in shaping attitudes toward immigrants and cultural diversity among youth, with the final goal of designing effective integration policies for inter-group relations and an inclusive society.

We will conduct a randomized evaluation of a program designed to foster intercultural dialogue and social inclusion through perspective-taking activities that can encourage students to break down stereotypes and consider cultural diversity and integration as a value. The program is implemented by the Italian-based NGO Helpcode and has been created by a multidisciplinary team of social scientists, pedagogical consultants, and multimedia developers within a framework of ‘active learning’.

The study will involve 240 high-school classes, across 40 schools located in the provinces of the two Italian cities of Milano and Genova. Due to resource constraints, the program can only be delivered to 120 classes during the school year 2022-2023. Other classes will be covered in the future, depending on the success of this initial phase and on future funding availability. The classes that will receive the program in this initial phase will be randomly selected among available classes within each target school. We will then conduct two rounds of data collection (baseline and endline), surveying a sample of about 5,000 students. Our primary outcome of interest will be attitudes towards migrants, as captured through a combination of measures, that include the Implicit Association Test (IAT), behavioural games, and self-reported measures. Our surveys will also allow us to capture a wider range of outcomes and discuss the mechanisms behind the observed impact.

We expect this study to provide new insights that can directly inform practitioners and policymakers to design programs and policies aimed at handling the complexity of population changes and creating an open and inclusive society.

State Capacity as an Organisational Problem: Evidence from the Growth of the US State over 100 Years

Researchers:

Nicola Mastrorocco (University of Bologna and TIME) with Edoardo Teso (Northwestern Kellog and CEPR)

Partners: TBA
Location: US
Sample:

about 1 million employee-year observation

Timeline: 1817-1905
Theme:

Political Economy, History, Development

Description:

We study how the organization of the state evolves over the process of development of a nation, using a new dataset on the internal organization of the U.S. federal bureaucracy over 1817- 1905. First, we show a series of novel facts, describing how the size of the state, its presence across the territory, and its key organizational features evolved over the nineteenth century. Second, exploiting the staggered expansion of the railroad and telegraph networks across space, we show that the ability of politicians to monitor state agents throughout the territory is an important driver of these facts: locations with lower transportation and communication costs with Washington DC have more state presence, are delegated more decision power, and have lower employee turnover. The results suggest that high monitoring costs are associated with small, personalistic state organizations based on networks of trust; technological innovations lowering monitoring costs facilitate the emergence of modern bureaucratic states.

Measuring and Enhancing Construction Worker Welfare in Dakar

Researchers:

Martina Kirchberger, Carol Newman, Vincent Thorne, Sveta Milusheva

Partners: Executive Council of Urban Transport in Dakar (CETUD), APIX and Ageroute
Location: Dakar, Senegal
Sample:

3.5 million people within an area of 550 km2

Timeline:

2018 - ongoing

Theme:

Urban Mobility

Description:

As is common to many large cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, the predominantly young population of Senegal faces limited opportunities for participation in the formal labour market. The high job insecurity and labour informality, especially among the poor and the youth, raises major concerns about how to provide jobs and livelihoods for Africa’s youth. Rapid population growth and urbanization is also placing substantial demands on Africa’s infrastructure with major investments in public infrastructure, including transport, telecommunications, and public housing, crucially needed. The labour-intensive nature of such projects provides an opportunity for job creation in the sector, which is one of the main sectors of employment for young men particularly. This Impact Evaluation (IE) aims to study and quantify the impacts of these jobs on workers, focusing on two questions in particular: (i) What are the net short and medium-term effects on worker welfare and future employability of offering jobs in the construction sector to low-skilled workers? (ii) What are the short and medium-term effects of offering non-cognitive training to construction workers on welfare and on obtaining a job after finalizing their current contract? To answer the first question, we will use the BRT construction and conduct a randomized control trial (RTC). For the second question, we test a training intervention focused on non-cognitive skills, in particular conscientiousness. The results will provide governments with estimates of the benefits of complementary worker training when it undertakes the building of large infrastructure projects.


 

Researchers:

Nicola Mastrorocco (University of Bologna and TIME) with Arianna Ornaghi (Hertic School and CEPR)

Partners: TBA
Location: United States of America
Sample: 8.5 Local TV News Stories in 300000 Newscast
Timeline: 2017-2020
Theme: Political Economy, Urban and Migration
Description: Do U.S. municipal police departments respond to news coverage of local crime? We address this question exploiting an exogenous shock to local crime reporting induced by acquisitions of local TV stations by a large broadcast group, Sinclair. Using a unique dataset of 8.5 million news stories and a triple differences design, we document that Sinclair ownership decreases news coverage of local crime. This matters for policing: municipalities that experience the change in news coverage have lower violent crime clearance rates relative to municipalities that do not. The result is consistent with a decrease of crime salience in the public opinion.

Researchers: Nicola Fontana
Location: London
Sample:

624 London electoral wards

Timeline: 2002–2019
Theme: Globalization
Description:

Anti-globalization sentiments have been on the rise in recent years. In urban contexts, these attitudes may take the form of backlash against tourism. In this paper, I examine the role of Airbnb, a major short-term rental platform, in explaining the rising discontent against tourists. To do so, I construct a rich and spatially disaggregated dataset to study the consequences of Airbnb penetration in London. First, I document that 1 additional Airbnb tourist per 1000 residents increases complaints against tourists by 2.2 per cent. Secondly, I explore the roots - pecuniary and non-pecuniary - of these reactions. I find that higher Airbnb penetration is associated with a decrease in neighbourhood quality, while the housing market is only marginally affected. These negative externalities can be explained by a lack of monitoring and coordination by hosts, which are key differences between short-term renting and traditional hotel accommodations. Finally, I provide evidence that the deterioration of neighbourhood quality markedly reduces social capital, as measured by the number of charitable organizations, and worsens attitudes towards globalization, leading to higher support for Brexit.

 

Researchers:

Nicola Mastrorocco (University of Bologna and TIME) with John Marshall (Columbia University, New York)

Partners: TBA
Location: Mexico
Sample: TBA
Timeline:

2018-TBA

Theme: Legalisation of cannabis in the United States & The business model of Mexican Criminal Organisations
Description: This project exploits the staggered and exogenous introduction of a law that legalise the use of Cannabis in US states. It exploits a unique dataset of the drug trafficking route of each cartel to each American State and it combines it with precise information about the type of illegal operations and violence disaggregated by cartel. Moreover, the project gathered data on the municipal electoral results in Mexico. With these sources of data, this research project will investigate the relationship between the legalization of cannabis in the United States and the business model of Mexican criminal organisation and the dynamics of electoral results at the municipal level.

Researchers:

Ronan C Lyons (TCD) and Alan Fernihough (Queens University Belfast)

Partners: N/A
Location:

Ireland

Sample: Approximately 3,500 Census districts in Ireland
Timeline:

1841 - 1911

Theme: Political Economy, Urban and Migration
Description: This study assesses the economic impact of transportation infrastructure on market access within a resource-limited, small, open economy. Utilising Irish data from 1851 to 1911, during which Ireland saw significant railway expansion, we examine how enhanced connectivity affects both domestic and international market access. The analysis reveals that while domestic market integration via railways led to population increases and higher land values, improved access to global markets had a counteracting influence. Specifically, it facilitated emigration and reduced labour-intensive agricultural exports, diluting the domestic agglomeration benefits. These findings indicate that the economic dividends of market access through transport infrastructure are not a given, providing a cautionary tale for similar modern economies considering infrastructure development as a path to economic growth.

Researchers:

Ronan C Lyons (TCD, PI); Tom Gillespie (NUIG), Brian Higgins (Stanford), Finn McLaughlin (Chicago) and Sean Moran (TCD)

Partners:

Economic & Social Research Institute; Environmental Protection Agency; Daft.ie

Location:

Ireland

Sample: Approximately 2.5 million property listings, sale and rental, from online and newspaper sources; 0.3m property transactions.
Timeline:

1995-2019

Theme: Housing Markets
Description:

This project investigates the impact of various location-specific amenities on housing market outcomes, such as sale and rental prices, yields and time to sell. It does this by using a combination of datasets, in particular an incredibly rich dataset of online real estate listings, both sale and rental and covering all of Ireland since 2006. Other datasets include a matched dataset of transactions, energy ratings and listings since 2010, and smaller listings datasets, from online and newspaper sourced over the period 1995-2005. Each paper assesses the impact of one specific amenity, including flood risk, FDI employment, access to blue space and green space amenities, urban rail and schools.

Publications:

"How do households perceive flood-risk? The impact of flooding on the cost of accommodation in Dublin, Ireland"

"The impact of employment on housing prices: Detailed evidence from FDI in Ireland

Working papers:

"Picture or Playground: Valuing Coastal Amenities"

Researchers:

Tara Mitchell and Carol Newman

Partners:

World Bank, Municipal Development Agency of Dakar

Location:

Senegal

Sample:

2,400 households living in peri-urban areas of Dakar

Timeline:

2013-2016

Theme: Infrastructure and Health
Description:

This study is a component of the World Bank-assisted Stormwater Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project (PROGEP) and uses a randomized controlled trial to provide evidence on how PROGEP can best achieve its community engagement objectives. Community participation is seen a key factor to ensure sustainability of the infrastructure investments put on the ground by PROGEP. The impact evaluation component of the project estimates the effectiveness of alternative mechanisms for engaging local populations in the preservation of public spaces. The two interventions studied by the evaluation are designed to achieve community engagement through (i) motivating communities to self-organize by financing community-proposed micro-projects; or (ii) targeting established community-based groups with social contract and performance-based incentives.

Researchers:

Gaia Narciso and Catia Batista

Partners:

Norface Research Programme on Migration

Location:

Ireland

Sample:

1,500 migrants living in Greater Dublin Area

Timeline:

2009-2015

Theme: Migration
Description:

This project investigates financial flows generated by international migrants. It implements a randomized control trial to quantitatively assess the role of communication between migrants and their contacts abroad on the extent and value of remittance flows. The aim of the project is to measure how this experimental variation in information flows between immigrants and their networks outside of Ireland affects remittance flows. The project has been presented in numerous seminars and prestigious conferences in Europe and North America.

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