- Date: Friday 10th January 2014
- Hosted By: European Commission: Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
(in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin)
- Venue: Gandon Suite South, Davenport Hotel, 2 Merrion Street Lower, Dublin 2
Future Directions for the Irish Economy
European Commission: Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affair
(in collaboration with Trinity College Dublin)
Gandon Suite South, Davenport Hotel, 10th January 2014
(20 minutes author, 15 minutes each discussant, 20 minutes Q&A)
08:45-09:30 The Irish Experience: Lessions Learned for the Future
Chair: Sean Whelan (RTE)
Introduction: Philip R. Lane, Trinity College Dublin
Speakers: Patrick Honohan, Central Bank of Ireland
09:30-10:45 Growth Prospects for the Irish Economy
Chair: Frances Ruane (ESRI)
Speaker: Nicholas Crafts (University of Warwick), “Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: A Phoenix Rising?”
Discussants: Kevin Daly (Goldman Sachs)
John Martin (ex OECD, Bartelsmann Foundation)
10:45-11:00 Coffee Break
11:00-12:15 Future of the Irish Financial System
Chair: Margaret Doyle (Deloitte)
Speaker: Thorsten Beck (CASS Business School), “Ireland’s Banking System - Looking Forward”
Discussants: Nigel Nagarajan (European Commission)
Lars Frisell (Central Bank of Ireland)
13:30-14:45 Ireland’s Fiscal Framework
Chair: John Moran (Department of Finance)
Speaker: George Kopits (Woodrow Wilson Center and Portuguese Public Finance Council) “Ireland’s Fiscal Framework: Options for the Future”
Discussants: John McHale (NUIG and Irish Fiscal Advisory Council)
Antonio Garcia-Pascual (Barclays)
14:45-16:00 Roundtable: Policy Challenges for the Irish Economy
Chair: Philip R. Lane (Trinity College Dublin)
Panelists: Craig Beaumont (International Monetary Fund)
Zsolt Darvas (Bruegel)
Martin Larch (European Commission)
Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela (European Central Bank)
Papers and Presentations
- Funding Needs and Sources during Programme
Ireland's EU-IMF Programme: Delivering what it said on the tin
Patrick Honohan, Central Bank of Ireland
- “Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: A Phoenix Rising?”
Nicholas Crafts (University of Warwick)
Discussion of Crafts (2014) “Ireland’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: a Phoenix Rising?”
Kevin Daly (Goldman Sachs)
- “Ireland’s Banking System - Looking Forward”
Thorsten Beck (CASS Business School)
Comments on Thorsten Beck: Ireland's Banking System - Looking forward
Nigel Nagarajan (European Commission)
The Irish Banking Trilemma
Lars Frisell (Central Bank of Ireland)
- “Ireland’s Fiscal Framework: Options for the Future”
George Kopits (Woodrow Wilson Center and Portuguese Public Finance Council)
Comments on George Kopits: “Ireland’s Fiscal Framework: Options for the Future”
John McHale (NUIG and Irish Fiscal Advisory Council)
Presentation Slides to follow
Antonio Garcia-Pascual (Barclays)
Policy Challenges for the Irish Economy
Presentation Slides: Craig Beaumont (International Monetary Fund)
Presentation Slides: Zsolt Darvas (Bruegel)
Presentation Slides: Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela (European Central Bank)
Craig Beaumont Current position: Mission chief for Ireland from early 2011 as Assistant Director in the European Department. IMF experience: Economist in various departments during 1995-2006 working on Bulgaria (during bank runs, hyperinflation, and establishment of a currency board in 1995-97), Hungary and Finland (1998-99), Jordan (2000-01), Korea, Australia and Fiji (2002-06). During the initial years of the global financial crisis (late 2008 to early 2011) headed a division in the Finance Department responsible for IMF borrowing starting with Japan's US$100 billion loan, new lending facilities including the FCL, the 2010 agreement on doubling IMF quotas, the sale of 1/8 of the IMF's gold, and the end 2010 update of the basket for the SDR which considered inclusion of the Chinese renminbi.
Background: Advisor at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (1988-94), contributing to monetary policy formulation in the initial stages of inflation targeting and the development of inflation forecasting models.
Education: M.Sc. from the London School of Economics.http://www.imf.org/external/country/IRL/
Thorsten Beck is professor of banking and finance at Cass Business School in London and professor of economics at Tilburg University. He was the founding chair of the European Banking Center at Tilburg University from 2008 to 2013. He is also a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Previously he worked in the research department of the World Bank and has also worked as consultant for - among others - the IMF, the European Commission, and the German Development Corporation. His research, academic publications and operational work have focused on two major questions: What is the relationship between finance and economic development? What policies are needed to build a sound and effective financial system? Recently, he has concentrated on access to financial services, including SME finance, as well as on the design of regulatory and bank resolution frameworks. In addition to numerous academic publications in leading economics and finance journals, he has co-authored several policy reports on access to finance, financial systems in Africa and cross-border banking. His country experience, both in operational and research work, includes Bangladesh, Bolivia, Brazil, China, Colombia, Egypt, Mexico, Russia and several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition to presentation at numerous academic conferences, including several keynote addresses, he is invited regularly to policy panels across Europe. He holds a PhD from the University of Virginia and an MA from the University of Tubingen in Germany. http://www.thorstenbeck.com/
Nicholas Crafts is Professor of Economic History at the University of Warwick and the Director of the ESRC Research Centre on Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE) at Warwick University. Previously he was Professor of Economic History at London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) from 1995 to 2005. His earlier career included faculty positions at UC Berkeley, Stanford and Oxford. He is a Fellow of the British Academy. Recent publications include “Long-Term European Growth Prospects: What Difference Does the Crisis Make?”, National Institute Economic Review (2013), “Returning to Growth: Policy Lessons from History”, Fiscal Studies (2013), and a book (edited with Peter Fearon), The Great Depression of the 1930s: Lessons for Today (Oxford University Press, 2013).
He has been a consultant to many organizations including BIS, HM Treasury, EBRD, IMF, Unilever and the World Bank. He was a Lead Expert on the UK Government Office for Science, Foresight Future of Manufacturing Project that published its report in October 2013. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/academic/crafts_/
Kevin Daly is a senior economist in Goldman Sachs. He assumed primary responsibility for covering the UK economy in 2011 and continues to cover other European economies. Kevin has also worked on a number of issues affecting the global economy, including the global "savings glut," fiscal adjustment and growth, European potential growth, and the relationship between potential growth and equity returns. He joined Goldman Sachs in 2001 and was named managing director in 2010.
Kevin has been awarded the Society of Business Economists' Rybczynski Prize twice, in 2004 for his paper "Has Euroland Performed That Badly?" and in 2007 for his paper "Gender Inequality, Growth and Global Ageing." In 2013, was won the Sunday Times award for most accurate UK economic forecaster and was elected a fellow of the SBE. Kevin has appeared as an expert witness before the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee and the House of Lords European Union Committee.
Kevin earned an MA in Economics from Cambridge University, an MSc, with distinction, in Economics from University College London and a PhD in Economics from Trinity College Dublin.
Back to programme
Zsolt Darvas, a Hungarian citizen, is a Senior Fellow at the Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel (Brussels European and Global Economic Laboratory), which ranked #1 Think Tank in Western Europe, #1 International Economic Policy Think Tank in the World, and #2 Think Tank in the World (non-US) in the 2012 Global Go To Think Tank Report and Policy Advice published by the University of Pennsylvania. Zsolt Darvas is also Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Associate Professor at the Corvinus University of Budapest. Before joining Bruegel in late 2008, he was the Research Advisor of the Argenta Financial Research Group in Budapest (2005-2008). Before that, he worked at the research unit of the Central Bank of Hungary (1994-2005) where he served as Deputy Head during 2001-2005. He had visiting researcher positions at the Bank of Finland, Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Stockholm School of Economics and Bruegel, and worked for research projects of the European Commission, the OECD and the World Bank. Zsolt Darvas holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Corvinus University of Budapest, where, among other institutions, he teaches courses in Econometrics since 1994. His research interests include macroeconomics, international economics, and time series analysis. His current works focus on policy issues, such as the growth challenge, public debt sustainability and economic governance. http://www.bruegel.org/scholars/scholar-detail/scholar/19-zsolt-darvas/
Margaret Doyle, Director, Financial Services Insight, Deloitte.
Margaret Doyle joined Deloitte in the new role of Director, Capital Markets Insight, in July 2012 and now heads up Insight across Financial Services.
She began her career as a strategy consultant in the financial institutions group of McKinsey & Company before moving into financial journalism.
She covered business and finance for The Economist and The Daily Telegraph for a decade, and for two years edited Global Agenda, the magazine of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting at Davos. She was one of the first columnists hired when Reuters launched a commentary service, later Reuters Breakingviews, where she covered investment banking.
Margaret has commented on finance and current affairs for a variety of news organisations, including BBC radio and television, America's NBC and NPR networks, Japan's NHK, Ireland's RTE and Newstalk, Sky News and CNN.
She has guest-presented several flagship current affairs programmes for the BBC, including Today, The World Tonight and Analysis on Radio 4; The World Today on the World Service and Wake Up to Money on Five Live.
She has been a panelist on BBC Radio 4's flagship discussion programme, Any Questions.
Margaret has addressed and chaired conferences on economic and financial subjects hosted by Economist Conferences, the European Commission, the Financial Services Authority, the Insurance Institute of Ireland, Commonfund, Trinity College, Dublin, Holland Financial Centre, Enterprise Ireland, KPMG, ING and Procter & Gamble.
Margaret read economics at Trinity College, Dublin, where she was an Entrance Exhibitioner (having earned maximum points on matriculation) and Foundation Scholar (the highest undergraduate honour). She earned a Masters in Business Administration from the Harvard Business School (HBS), which she attended on a Fulbright Scholarship, and from which she graduated a Baker Scholar (top 5% of the class).
She was Head Girl at Loreto College, Wexford.
Margaret serves on the HBS European Leadership Council. She was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts in 2003. She has represented Little Venice on Westminster City Council since 2006.
Lars Frisell heads the Economics Directorate at the CBI and is a member of the Bank's Financial Stability Committee and its Senior Management Committee. He is also the Bank's chief economist and presents the Bank's Quarterly Bulletin and bi-annnual Macrofinancial Review.
Lars joined the CBI in June 2012 from the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority where he held the position of Chief Economist since 2009. In that role he was responsible for establishing a new economics department and leading the authority's macro-prudential analysis. Prior to this, he held a number of roles at the Swedish Central Bank - the Riksbank - inncluding that of Deputy Head of the Financial Stability Department. He has also worked in research roles at the Riksbank, European Central Bank and Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fur Sozialforschung.
A native of Sweden, Lars holds a PhD in Economics from the Stockholm School of Economics, an M.Sc in Mathematical Methods from Northwestern University, Illinois, an M.Sc in Business and Economics from the Stockholm School of Economics.
Patrick Honohan, The tenth Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, Patrick Honohan, was appointed on 26 September 2009. Before his appointment as Governor, he was Professor of International Financial Economics and Development at Trinity College Dublin from 2007. Prior to this, he spent almost a decade at the World Bank where he was Senior Advisor on financial sector policy. He was previously Research Professor with the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin (1990-98), Economic Advisor to Taoiseach Garret Fitzgerald (1981-82 and 1984-86) and he spent several years as an economist at the Central Bank of Ireland (1976-81 and 1984-86), and at the International Monetary Fund (1971-73). A graduate of University College Dublin, he received his Ph.D. in Economics from the London School of Economics in 1978. He has taught Economics at the LSE and at the University of California-San Diego, the Australian National University and University College Dublin, as well as at Trinity College. In recent years, his research has mainly focused on monetary and financial sector policy. http://www.centralbank.ie/about-us/Pages/OurSeniorTeam.aspx#honohan
George Kopits is a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, where his primary research interest is the Euro debt crisis. He is also a member of Portugal's Public Finance Council and a member of the Commission on Strengthening the Macro-Fiscal Framework in Peru.
From 2009 to 2011, Kopits served as the first chair of the Fiscal Council in Hungary - elected unanimously by Parliament. From 2004 to 2009, he was a member of the Monetary Council, National Bank of Hungary. Previous positions include assistant director at the International Monetary Fund, and financial economist at the Office of the Secretary, U.S. Treasury Department. In addition to involvement in fiscal and monetary policymaking in Hungary and the United States, Kopits headed technical assistance missions on economic policy issues to Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Indonesia, Madagascar, Mexico, Peru, Russia, and Ukraine. Also, he was invited to provide advice to the authorities of Argentina, China, Colombia, India, Israel, Korea, Nigeria, South Africa, Thailand, United Kingdom, and Venezuela.
Kopits has held visiting academic appointments at Bocconi, Budapest, Cape Town, Johns Hopkins, Siena, and Vienna universities. He authored more than sixty publications and is an occasional contributor to the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. Currently, he is on the faculty of the Central European University.
Kopits holds a Ph.D. in economics from Georgetown University and is a member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
Philip R. Lane is Whately Professor of Political Economy at Trinity College Dublin. In addition, he is a managing editor of Economic Policy. He is a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) . His research interests include financial globalisation, the macroeconomics of exchange rates and capital flows, macroeconomic policy design, European Monetary Union, and the Irish economy. His work has been published in American Economic Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives and many other journals. In 2001, he was the inaugural recipient of the German Bernacer Award in Monetary Economics, awarded for outstanding contributions to monetary economics by European economists under 40; in 2010, he was the joint winner of the Bhagwati Prize from the Journal of International Economics. He also serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of International Economics, International Journal of Central Banking, Empirica, Open Economies Review and Moneda y Credito. He is a member of the Royal Irish Academy, the Bellagio Group, the Committee for International Economic Policy Reform and the EURO-50 group and is a former member of the Handelsblatt ECB Shadow Council. He is also a member of the National Statistics Board, the Council of the ESRI and scientific advisory committee of CEPII. He has consulted for the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Commission, European Central Bank, Asian Development Bank, OECD and a number of national central banks and other policy organisations. He is the founder of The Irish Economy blog. www.philiplane.org
Martin Larch has been with the European Commission in Brussels since June 2000. He is currently Head of Unit in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs in charge of Ireland, Poland and Lithuania. His earlier assignments at the Commission also include one as adviser in the Bureau of European Policy Advisers (BEPA) reporting to the Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.
Martin Larch obtained an economics degree and a PhD in economics from Vienna University and followed doctoral and post-doctoral studies at the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna and the European Institute at the London School of Economics.
His interests and publications focus on macro-fiscal issues, including in particular fiscal policy making in the EU. He has published extensively in scholarly journals and contributed to a number of books. He is also co-editor of the book on ‘Fiscal policy making in the European Union.
John P. Martin was Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs at the OECD from 2000 to early 2013; his brief as Director also covered OECD work on health and international migration. He is currently working as a consultant for the German Bertelsmann Foundation on a major cross-country project on the political economy of labour market reforms.
He is an Irish citizen. After studying Economics at University College Dublin, he worked as a research assistant at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin from 1970 to 1972; during this period, he was also economics correspondent for the Sunday Independent. He did postgraduate studies at Nuffield College, Oxford. In 1975, he became research fellow at Nuffield College and lecturer in economics at Merton College, Oxford; he also lectured in economics at the University of Buckingham.
John Martin joined the OECD in 1977 and held many posts in the Organisation during his 36-year stint including in the Economics Department. He was the founding editor of the OECD Employment Outlook from 1983 to 1986, and he also edited the OECD Economic Outlook in 1992-93. He was a member of both the Editorial Board of OECD Economic Studies and an associate editor of Labour Economics for many years. He was also the OECD sherpa to the G20 Labour ministerial process. Other professional responsibilities include being: a Policy Associate of the Leverhulme Centre for Research on Globalisation and Economic Policy at the University of Nottingham; a Research Fellow of the Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA) in Bonn; a member of the French Prime Minister’s “Conseil d’orientation pour l’emploi”; a member of the Strategic Board of the Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire d’Evaluation des Politiques Publiques (LIEPP) at Sciences Po, Paris; and a member of the Irish government’s Labour Market Advisory Council. In 2013, he was awarded the Presidential Distinguished Service Award for the Irish Abroad by the President of Ireland, Michael D. Higgins. In 2013, he delivered the 11th annual Corden Lecture at the University of Melbourne. He is a part-time Professor at the Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po) in Paris. He has published many articles on topics in labour economics and international trade in professional journals and has also written and edited several books in these fields.
John McHale is Established Professor and Head of Economics at the National University of Ireland, Galway. He has served as Chairman of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council since July 2012. Before joining NUI Galway he held positions as Assistant Professor of Economics and Associate Professor of Economics at Harvard University, and as Associate Professor of Managerial Economics and Toller Family Research Fellow at the Queen's University, Ontario. He holds Ph.D and A.M degrees from Harvard, and first-class B.Comm. (1988) and M.Econ.Sc. (1990) degrees from the National University of Ireland. Professor McHale has been a consultant to the World Bank on various migration and development projects. He is currently an associate editor of the Economic and Social Review and a member of the National Economic and Social Council.
John Moran is the Secretary General of the Department of Finance having previously been Head of Banking at the Department. He is responsible for economic, budgetary and fiscal, banking and financial service policy matters and oversight of Ireland's investments in and support for covered banks. Prior to this Mr. Moran was head of wholesale bank supervision in the Central Bank of Ireland. Mr Moran is also a member of the Advisory Board of the National Treasury Management Agency, Commission of the Central Bank of Ireland, a Board Member of the European Investment Bank and Co-Chair of the EFC Expert Group on Long Term Financing. Mr. Moran has also been CEO and Board Member for Zurich Bank, CEO of Zurich Capital Markets and a resident solicitor for McCann Fitzgerald. www.finance.gov.ie
Nigel Nagarajan is currently an Adviser on Financial Stability and Monetary Affairs in the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. He was previously the European Commission's Resident Adviser in Ireland, working on all aspects of Ireland's EU/IMF financial assistance programme. He continues to work on Ireland's financial sector in his current position in Brussels. Prior to his time in Ireland, he served as the Economic Counsellor and Head of Economic Affairs at the European Union's Delegation in Washington DC, where he was responsible for liaising with the IMF on financial assistance programmes for EU countries and analysing developments in the US economy. In his time as a European Commission economist, he has worked on Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), exchange rate analysis and a variety of international economic issues. Prior to joining the Commission, he worked as an economist for the UK government and as a financial analyst for Cable and Wireless PLC.
Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela Following a graduate degree in Economics at the Universidad Complutense of Madrid, Dr Rodriguez Palenzuela completed his PhD in Economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1933. Subsequently, he worked as Assistant Professor in the Economics Department of Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona until 1999. From 1994 to 1995, he was also Senior Staff Researcher of the Applied Economics Research Foundation in Madrid. After being awarded the NATO scholarship to conduct a research project as visiting scholar at the MIT Economics Department in spring 1999, Dr Rodriiguez Palenzuela became Senior Economist of the Econometric Modelling Division at DG-Research (ECB). Then, since 2001, he has carried out work with the DG-Economics of the ECB. From 2001 to 2002, he worked as Principal Economist of the Euro Area Macroeconomic Developments Division, from 2002 to 2004 as Principal Economist of the Monetary Policy Strategy Division, and from 2004 to 2009 as Senior Adviser of the Monetary Policy Assessment and Implementation Unit. Since 2009 Dr Rodríguez Palenzuela works as Head of the Capital Markets and Financial Structure Division of DG-Economics, currently holds the role of ECB Mission Chief for Ireland's EU-IMF Financial Assistance Programme and form part of an EC-led High Level Expert Group that analyses the enhancement of access to funding for SMEs. On top of being awarded doctoral fellowships from the MIT Sloan School of Management (Industrial Performance Center), the Spanish Ministry of Education, the Central Bank of Spain, and the Fundacion Ramon Areces, Dr Rodriguez Palenzuela has been a Visiting Scholar at a host of universities. Additionally, he is the Vice President of the MIT Alumni Association of Spain and a member of the European Economic Association. He has published extensive research in refereed international journals (such as the International Journal of Central Banking or the Journal of Economic Surveys) and national journals as well as conference proceedings. He has also published articles in books and monographs. Moreover, his academic activities include a wealth of institutional presentations and panel discussions. Dr Rodríguez Palenzuela has contributed paper contributions to conferences and workshops, has organised academic and central banking workshops, and has been PhD thesis committee member for several scholarly undertakings. His current research in progress is entitled: “The Impact of market stress on banks’ funding channels and the threat to unsecured funding markets”, Gonzalo Camba-Mendez (ECB), Santiago Carbo-Valverde (Bangor U.) and Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela.
Antonio Garcia Pascual is a Managing Director and Chief Euro Area Economist at Barclays, based in London. Prior to joining Barclays in June 2010, Mr. Garcia Pascual was a senior economist at the monetary and capital markets department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which he represented at the Basel Committee on banking stress test issues. Prior to the IMF, Mr. Garcia Pascual taught International Finance and Econometrics at the University of Munich. He has published extensively, including in academic journals such as the Journal of International Money and Finance, Oxford Economic Papers, and the Review of International Economics. Mr. Garcia Pascual graduated with a PhD in Economics from the University of California.
Professor Frances Ruane is Director of the ESRI. She is currently a member of the Economic Advisory Group in Northern Ireland and the Council of Economic Advisors in Scotland. She is also a Research Associate of the Institute of International Integration Studies, and an Honorary Professor at the Department of Economics at Trinity College. She previously held positions as an economist in the Department of Economics in Trinity College Dublin, the Industrial Development Authority, the Central Bank of Ireland and Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario. She studied economics at UCD and at University of Oxford (Nuffield College).
Inter alia, Frances is member of the Royal Irish Academy, the Council of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, and the editorial boards of the Journal of International and Economic Policy and the International Review of Economics and Finance. In April 2010 she was elected an Honorary Fellow of TCD.
Her research interests lie in international economics and industrial development, and particularly the innovation and exporting behaviour of enterprises in the manufacturing and service sectors. She recently co-edited (with Pete Lunn) a book by ESRI researchers on Using Evidence to Inform Policy.
- High mobility of capital and technology means prospects of economy are unclear The Irish Times 10 January 2014
- Financial downturn has hit poor households hard - Central Bank Governor The Irish Independant 10 January 2014
- Some banks easing lending ahead of stress tests: ECB's Honohan Reuters 10 January 2014
- Central Bank governor: The bailout programme did what it said on the tin The Journal.ie 10 January 2014
- Market confidence due to 'rigorous adherence to fiscal goals' - Honohan RTE 10 January 2014
- Honohan: Poor hit hardest by economic crisis The Irish Examiner 11 January 2014
- Full recovery here will take at least a decade, says IMF The Irish Independant 11 January 2014
- 'Give teeth to Fiscal Advisory Council' -- expert The Irish Independant 11 January 2014