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Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold Dirk G. Baur and Brian M. Lucey

This paper addresses two questions. First, we investigate whether gold is a hedge against stocks and/or bonds and second, we investigate whether gold is a safe haven for investors if either stocks or bonds fall. A safe haven is defined as a security that loses none of its value in case of a market crash. This is counterpoised against a hedge, defined as a security that does not co-move with stocks or bonds on average. We study constant and time-varying relationships between stocks, bonds and gold in order to investigate the existence of a hedge and a safe haven. The empirical analysis examines US, UK and German stock and bond prices and returns and their relationship with the Gold price. We find that (i) Gold is a hedge against stocks, (ii) Gold is a safe haven in extreme stock market conditions and (iii) Gold is a safe haven for stocks only for 15 trading days after an extreme shock occurred.

JEL: G10, G11, G14, G15
Keywords: Safe haven, gold, stock-bond correlation, flight-to-quality

Last updated 28 August 2014 by IIIS (Email).