Dr. Joseph Kopecky

• Joseph Kopecky, The Age for Austerity? Population Age Structure and Fiscal Consolidation Multipliers, Journal of Macroeconomics, 73, 2022, p1 - 25Journal Article, 2022, DOI , URL , TARA - Full Text
• Joseph Kopecky, Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging, Macroeconomic Dynamics, First View , 2022, p1 - 36Journal Article, 2022, DOI , URL , TARA - Full Text
• Joseph Kopecky, Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data, Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 74, 2023, p1-20Journal Article, 2023, DOI , URL , TARA - Full Text
• Joseph Kopecky, Growing older and growing apart? Population age structure and trade, Journal of Economic Studies, 2023Journal Article, 2023, DOI , TARA - Full Text
• Joseph Kopecky, The MacroDemography Database, V1, openICPSR, 2023Dataset, 2023, DOI
• Joseph Kopecky, The Demographic Trade Database, V2, open ICPSR, 2023Dataset, 2023, DOI
• Joseph Kopecky, Many Unions, One Estimate? Disaggregating the Currency Union Effect on Trade, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Latest Articles, 2023, p1 - 23Journal Article, 2023, DOI , TARA - Full Text
• Joseph Kopecky, A Match Made in Maastricht: Estimating The Treatment Effect of the Euro On Trade, OPEN ECONOMIES REVIEW, (Online first article), 2023Journal Article, 2023, DOI , URL , TARA - Full Text

• Joseph Kopecky, An Aging Dynamo: Demographic Change and the Decline of Entrepreneurial Activity in the United States, 2020Working Paper
• Joseph Kopecky, Less Perfect Unions: Average Treatment Effects of Currency Unions and the EMU on Trade Over Time, 2019Working Paper
• Joseph Kopecky and Alan M Taylor, The Savings Glut of the Old: Population Aging, the Risk Premium, and the Murder-Suicide of the Rentier, 2022Working Paper, DOI , URL
• Joseph Kopecky, Wasted on the Young? Aging and Entrepreneurial Activity, Opportunity, and Skill, 2022Working Paper, URL

• Title

  Population Ageing and Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
  Summary

  This project aims to construct a tool for dynamic macroeconomic policy analysis for Ireland. We are building on existing overlapping generations models that have been used for dynamic fiscal policy analysis (dynamic scoring) in the US and other countries to study the effects of long run population change on macroeconomic fiscal policy. This framework is quite different than the policy tools currently employed for fiscal analysis by the ESRI and Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, and we believe will provide a complementary perspective to existing structural modelling (eg the COSMO model). Our goal is that this tool will be useful not only for the proposed question or population ageing, but for a wide range of macroeconomic areas. The planned output is an open source tool that can be used in collaboration with other Irish policy institutes to contribute to existing analysis and evaluation of current and future Irish macroeconomic policy. With my PhD student brought in under the award Giorgia Conte we have assembled and cleaned the relevant calibration data which we will use to calibrate the existing model for Ireland. In the coming year we will apply this to the question of fiscal sustatinability under population aging. Our roadmap beyond that initial paper is to reach out to other fiscal policy researchers to assess areas for future growth and collaboration of the project.
  Funding Agency

  Provost Project PhD Award
  Date From

  Fall 2022

Economics and Business Administration,

• Provost PhD Project Awards 2020
• Visiting Professor Fund, FAHSS 2019

• CEPR "Wait and Involve" List Present
• European Economic Association, Member Present
• Western Economic Association, Member Present
• American Economic Associaiton, Membership Present

• Referee: Journal of Macroeconomics 2022
• Referee: Research & Politics 2023
• Referee: SAGE Open 2023
• Referee: Sage Open 2022
• Referee: Journal of Applied Economics 2023
• Referee: Review of International Economics 2018