Ireland's transport sector is currently a major contributor to the nation's greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for approximately 20% of the total. With a legally binding target to reduce these emissions by 50% by 2030, the challenge of rapid decarbonisation is monumental. This pressing issue was the focus of a recent online event hosted by E3, Trinity College Dublin, titled "Achieving Our Climate Goals in Transport," which featured an insightful discussion with Professor Brian Caulfield, a leading expert in transportation.
The Current State of Transport
Professor Caulfield, a professor in transportation in Trinity's Department of Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering and a Fellow of the College, presented a sobering picture of the current situation. Drawing on his research and his role as a lead author on the EPA's State of the Environment report for 2024, he highlighted that transport emissions are not only stubbornly high but, in some cases, are on the rise again. A significant portion of these emissions, 95%, comes from road-based transport.
A key concern raised was the over-reliance on electric vehicles (EVs) as the cornerstone of Ireland's climate policy. While EV adoption is important, sales of new battery electric vehicles are currently down. This is further complicated by the increasing popularity of Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs), which Professor Caulfield noted can emit up to 20% more than a standard petrol or diesel car. He starkly illustrated the issue by stating that the emissions from five of the worst-performing SUVs can negate the benefits of one electric car. This points to a flawed strategy that focuses on vehicle type rather than addressing the fundamental issues of congestion and vehicle size.
Challenges of Geography and Infrastructure
Ireland’s unique geography and demography present a significant hurdle. With a low population density and a large rural population, providing an effective public transport network for all is an immense challenge. Data presented by Professor Caulfield showed that while urban residents are often within a short walk of essential amenities and public transport stops, their rural counterparts are not. This reinforces the need for private cars in many parts of the country.
The pace of infrastructure development is also a major obstacle. Professor Caulfield highlighted that it took 25 years to build Ireland’s current 40 kilometres of light rail, yet we now need to deliver an additional 61 kilometres in just 18 years. The slow progress on projects like the Finglas Luas line, which will have taken 11 years to build a mere four kilometres of track, demonstrates that the current pace is not sufficient to meet our climate goals.
The Green Shoots of Progress
Despite the negatives, Professor Caulfield's presentation also offered reasons for optimism, which he referred to as "green shoots."
• Public Transport is Gaining Momentum: There were over 308 million public transport trips in 2023, an increase from pre-pandemic levels. This success is largely due to more affordable and transparent ticketing and fare structures.
• Rural Connectivity is Thriving: The "Connecting Ireland" programme has been a resounding success. This initiative, which saw the launch of 34 new and enhanced bus services in 2023, is drawing international attention. The Local Link service, in particular, saw a remarkable 78% increase in passenger numbers compared to the previous year.
• Localised Solutions: Athlone is now home to Ireland’s first fully electric bus fleet, a fantastic example expected to reduce the town’s emissions by 400 tonnes of CO2 annually.
• Innovative Urban Planning: The Dublin City Pathfinder project, which introduced traffic restrictions in a small area of the city centre, has shown promising initial results. This trial led to a 60% decrease in car usage in the area and an 11% increase in public transport usage, all with minimal negative impact on traffic flow elsewhere.
Looking Ahead: Policy, People, and Technology
In a discussion with Professor Karen Wiltshire, the CRH Professor of Climate Science at Trinity College Dublin, Professor Caulfield explored the broader actions needed to accelerate change. He argued that to meet our targets, we need to be more strategic and ambitious. While he has been a key advisor to bodies like the Irish Citizens' Assembly and the Climate Change Advisory Council on these very issues, he acknowledged that frustration is a constant companion for those working in this field.
Professor Caulfield believes there is no "silver bullet" to solve the problem. The solution requires a multifaceted approach, combining major infrastructure projects with a collective shift in public behaviour. He stressed that we must look beyond personal vehicles and leverage the most effective transport technologies that have existed for a century: bicycles, buses, and trains. While he sees technologies like AI as powerful tools for modelling and analysis, he remains sceptical of solutions like autonomous vehicles that simply make it easier to drive.
The discussion also touched on the need for strong governance and political will. Professor Caulfield pointed to the example of cities like Paris and Barcelona, which have been transformed by mayors with a clear mandate for sustainable urban planning. He also emphasised the importance of listening to all voices, even those in opposition, to build a consensus for change. He concluded with a powerful message for students and young people: be prepared to be radical, but also to listen and work collaboratively. While achieving a 50% reduction by 2030 may seem unlikely, he suggested that aiming for a 30% reduction would still be a great achievement, as long as it is accompanied by the foundational infrastructure necessary for a more rapid transition toward 2050.