Trinity College Dublin

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PROSPERO will develop, implement and evaluate a prototype management system for identifying and actively managing systemic risks in the Air Transport System, including complex and novel interactions. This will include the following components:

  • A common operational concept of performance indicators representing inputs, ongoing activity as well as outputs of the ATS. These performance indicators will link safety to other operational goals.
  • A methodology for operational system analysis that can support hazard and risk assessment, investigation, modeling and simulation of future systems, managing organizational change and system redesign. A new taxonomy will build on and extend the range of ADREP to encompass a full range of aviation socio-technical system concepts.
  • A generic system-risk-management process involving all ATS stakeholders. This is based on the premise that ?the risk is built in before the operation starts and needs to be managed through the whole operational lifecycle?. This includes:
    • The production of risk information from operational monitoring and analysis
    • The supply of information on system status, including the aircraft and other technologies, route, personnel, weather, traffic.
    • Risk management across the operational cycle ? design, planning and supply, operational management (dispatch, operations)
    • Feedback and learning
  • A software system to support the socio-technical analysis and redesign of ATS, data integration, data monitoring and analysis, learning, capturing tacit knowledge, hosting on appropriate technologies and interfaces and links with complimentary applications.
  • A dissemination and exploitation process that manages active real-time engagement with the wider aviation community and key institutional stakeholders, including the following: SESAR, SES PRB, EASA, IATA, ACI, FAA, ICAO, so as to ensure that PROSPERO delivers what the industry requires and that there is a clear path to the adoption and implementation of its methodologies, tools and organizational framework


Nick McDonald


2012 - 2015

Funding provider



Last updated 5 February 2015