Skip to main content

Trinity College Dublin, The University of Dublin

Trinity Menu Trinity Search

You are here People

Dr. Thomas Chadefaux
Assistant Professor, Political Science


Thomas Chadefaux holds an M.A. in international politics from the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, and an M.A. and Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. Prior to becoming an assistant Professor of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin, he has been a visiting assistant professor in the department of political science at the University of Rochester and a postdoctoral researcher at ETH Zurich.

Publications and Further Research Outputs

Peer-Reviewed Publications

Thomas Chadefaux, Market Anticipations of Conflict Onsets. , Journal of Peace Research , 54, (2), 2017, p1 - 18 Journal Article, 2017 URL

Thomas Chadefaux, Conflict Forecasting and its Limits, Data Science, 1, (1), 2017, p1 - 11 Journal Article, 2017 URL

Spaiser, Viktoria, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay and Dirk Helbing., Communication power struggles on social media: A case study of the 2011-12 Russian protests, Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 2017, p1 - 47 Journal Article, 2017 URL

Helbing, Dirk, Dirk Brockmann, Thomas Chadefaux, Karsten Donnay, Ulf Blanke, Olivia Woolley-Meza, Mehdi Moussaid, Anders Johansson, Jens Krause, Sebastian Schutte, Matjaz Perc, Saving Human Lives: What Complexity Science and Information Systems Can Contribute, Journal of Statistical Physics, June, 2015, p1 - 47 Journal Article, 2015 URL

Thomas Chadefaux, 'ACCESS', 2015, - Map, GIS map, 2015

Thomas Chadefaux, Market Anticipations of Conflict Onset, 2015 Invited Talk, 2015

Thomas Chadefaux, Early Warning Signals for War in the News, Journal of Peace Research, 51, (1), 2014, p1 - 14 Journal Article, 2014 URL

Thomas Chadefaux, News and War, 1.0, Journal of Peace Research, 2014 Dataset, 2014 URL

Thomas Chadefaux, Dirk Helbing, The Rationality of Prejudices, PLoS One, 7, (2), 2012, p1 - 10 Journal Article, 2012 URL

Thomas Chadefaux, Bargaining over Power: When Do Shifts in Power Lead to War? , International Theory, 3, (2), 2011, p228 - 253 Journal Article, 2011 URL

Thomas Chadefaux, Dirk Helbing, How Wealth Accumulation Can Promote Cooperation. , PLoS One, 5, (10), 2010 Journal Article, 2010 URL

Data Science, Amsterdam, IOS Press, [eds.], -2018 Editorial Board,

Non-Peer-Reviewed Publications

Thomas Chadefaux, The Triggers of War: Disentangling the Spark from the Powder Keg., 2014 Working Paper, 2014 URL

Research Expertise


My current research focuses on the causes of interstate conflict and on their prediction. In particular, I rely on large amounts of fine-grained spatial and temporal data (e.g., newspapers, satellite images, financial markets) to reveal early warning signals for war. I also study the geographic aspects of civil wars. In addition, my interests extend beyond political science to sociology and evolutionary game theory.


BARGAINING; BARGAINING POWER; BARGAINING THEORY; civil war; CONFLICT; Econometrics/Forecasting; FORECASTING; Game Theory; international conflict; Interstate war



. Editorial Board Member, Data Science

Awards and Honours

Best Paper award, Oxford, "Internet, Politics, Policy" conference Sept. 2012

Best visualisation award 2014

Best visualisation award, Journal of Peace Research 2014


American Political Science Association 2004

American Economic Association 2009

Midwest Political Science Association 2005