A Projection of Irish Agricultural Structure Using Markov Chain Analysis,
JEL Classification: Q12
McKeon, Orla H.
Department of Economics, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland
AbstractStructural change in six Irish farming enterprise sectors is
projected into the future using the Krenz (1964) modified version of the Markov
Chain technique. In this paper, the application of the technique is based
on the assumption that all those forces that influenced agricultural structural
change in the past will continue to do so into the future. The projected
pattern of structural change shows a continuing decline in the number of
holdings involved in each enterprise sector and an increasing concentration on
larger holdings. Pig farming is projected to experience the greatest
proportionate decline in the number of holdings involved (-80%, 1985-2000)
whilst cattle is projected to experience the least decline (-14%,
1985-2000). Entries into sheep farming in some year are also projected.