Employment and the Crisis: Work, Migration, Unemployment
Abstracts and Presentations
- Klaus Dörre - Precarious Work – Consequences for German Trade Unions
- Michael Doherty - Crisis and Collapse of Social Partnership in Ireland
- Nata Duvvury - Gender, Employment and Recession: Trends and Impacts
- Richard Hyman - Trade Unions, Industrial Relations and the Crisis: The European Context
- Elish Kelly, Seamus McGuinness and Philip O'Connell - Training the Unemployed During Recession?
- Torben Krings and Elaine Moriarty - 'I would go back to Poland and then what?" Migrant Stories in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland
- Camille Loftus - Better Off on the Dole?
- Bertrand Maître and Brian Nolan - Poverty and Inequality in the Crisis
- Fran McGinnity and Helen Russell - Employees in Recession: Working Conditions and Well-Being
- Peter Mühlau - Recession and Newly Arrived Immigrants – Results from the 'Polonia in Dublin' Study
- Tom Prosser - Trade Union Responses in Ireland and Spain Compared
- Helen Russell - Over-Indebtedness in Irish Households
- James Wickham - Emigration Again – Ireland 1980s, Poland 2000s, Ireland 2010s…
- Precarious Work – Consequences for German Trade Unions
The German employment wonder has a downside, namely a deeply segmented labour market. Reality is following the model that Robert Castel projected a decade ago. In fact, the new regime of labour market policy aims at fighting unemployment by increasing the zone of vulnerable, unprotected and precarious employment. However, wage trends suggest that the new regime results in a changing power balance on the labour market. The lowest quartile of wage earners has experienced a real wage loss of 14% in the last decade (1997-2007); wage earners in somewhat secure employment were barely able to stabilize their living standards or had to accept moderate losses. Data suggests that the stylized model of diversified quality production guaranteeing skilled workers high wages and secure workplaces is no longer typical for the German economy. In the precarious sector, the price of labour is forcefully pressed under its real value, subsidized by the state since wages are below the living wage. Unsurprisingly, the expansion of precarious work and the low wage sector constitute major challenges for German trade unions. This presentation discusses unions' attempts to organize precarious workers and new forms of inclusive interest representation.
Ireland has always been categorised as one of the unlikely countries to engage with a corporatist strategy and much academic attention has focused on 'accounting for the Irish case' since the renewal of social partnership in the late 1980s. Given the absence of many of the 'institutional preconditions' for corporatist deals, and Ireland's Anglo-Saxon IR tradition, many were surprised at the seeming durability of the Irish partnership process. However the cosy consensus of partnership has been rocked by the economic crisis and resulting recession, which has impacted more seriously, in terms of unemployment and economic decline, on Ireland than many of its European partners. In late-2009, the process effectively collapsed in the light of State and employer withdrawal from the Partnership Agreement signed in 2008 and the imposition of swingeing cuts to public sector pay, public services and social welfare in the most recent budget. This presentation examines the key factors behind the collapse of the Irish social partnership process in 2010 and looks at some of the broader implications that can be drawn. It categorises the process as being driven by extreme pragmatism, rather than ideological conviction, on the part of the main actors and looks at how the shifting positions of the State, labour and capital, as well as the focus on processes over outcomes, led to the demise of the much-admired Irish model. The presentation also looks at the likely future development of Irish IR in the context of the crisis and the end of the partnership era.
The current global financial and economic crisis is popularly labelled as a "hecession" given the sudden and dramatic decline in male employment across the globe, particularly in the industrialized countries and in Ireland. There is has been less attention in academic, policy and popular discourses on the trends for female employment/unemployment. This paper is concerned with the following questions: To what extent has the current economic crisis resulted in sharp increase in female unemployment relative to male unemployment in Ireland? What have been the gender shifts among those continuing to work? Has there been an increase in vulnerable employment? Is there a shifting gender order with more households relying on female income, i.e. an increase in female maintained households?
We should not speak of the crisis in the singular. The financial crisis that unfolded in 2008 generated a more general economic crisis, involving in some countries an employment crisis. Government rescue measures precipitated a fiscal crisis, linked in some cases to a sovereign debt crisis. After brief signs that the recipes of neoliberalism might be abandoned, the policy responses at both EU and national level have created an austerity crisis. An unfolding social and political crisis is a logical outcome.
Though there are some parallels with previous crises, there are also important differences; hence there are no road maps for the industrial relations outcomes. Initially there were two opposing prognoses: one was that trade unions would be driven towards new types of social and industrial conflict; the other was a reinforcement of processes of dialogue and partnership at company and national level in order to reach negotiated outcomes. What we have seen so far is a complex and contradictory combination of both. As the austerity measures bite, consensual solutions seem far less attainable, and we can expect heightened confrontation, as is already apparent in several European countries. But this can take many different forms, and sustaining a coordinated trade union response will be challenging.
Elish Kelly, Seamus McGuinness and Philip O'Connell
Given the startling rise in unemployment in Ireland since 2008, an increasing amount of attention has been focused on the most appropriate form of unemployment activation policy. This paper uses a unique dataset, which tracks the labour market position of a cohort of unemployment claimants for almost two years, to consider this issue. The data contains information on both the individual characteristics of claimants and their experiences of activation measures. Previous research (1) based on this dataset revealed that while job search assistance had no positive impact on improving exit rates from unemployment, individuals who participated in FÁS training programmes were substantially less likely to be unemployed at the end of the two year study. This paper extends this analysis further by considering the differential impact of various types of training programme on successful labour market entry. We find that over three-quarters of FÁS training provision (2) is centred around low-skill or general training, with the remaining quarter focused on equipping claimants with medium-to-high level skills. Our provisional results suggest that the previously observed positive overall training effect is driven exclusively by the medium-high skill components of the training regime with little or no benefit deriving from low skill training provision. The results suggest that in an environment where reducing unemployment has become the primary policy concern, there are potentially substantial benefits to re-orientating current unemployment training provision more towards medium-to-high skill end of the market.
(1) McGuinness, S. P. J. O'Connell, E. Kelly and J.R Walsh. (2011). Activation in Ireland: An Evaluation of the National Employment Action Plan. ESRI Research Series, Dublin: The Economic and Social Research Institute (forthcoming). (2) Measured in terms of training days.
Torben Krings and Elaine Moriarty
- 'I would go back to Poland and then what?" Migrant Stories in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland (PDF, 124KB)
The current economic crisis has instigated a new work environment for migrants who came to work and live in Ireland during the Celtic bubble of the 2000s. Now that Ireland has gone from 'boom to bust', there is evidence of a far more precarious situation for migrant workers with employer recruitment becoming more cautious and Irish nationals now willing to take on what were once perceived as 'migrant jobs'. Using data from a two-year qualitative panel study of Polish migrant workers in the Irish labour market, we demonstrate how the employment relationship has become more precarious at the micro level – through reduced working conditions, an intensification of work, an extension of work duties, and a greater propensity among employers to issue flexible contracts. Arguably, the choices of migrants are more constrained in a downturn. However, we also show that even in the context of a crisis, Polish migrants continue to see opportunities as they are not bound by a work permit and are more mobile than previous generations of European immigrants. For some migrants, the crisis precipitated an opportunity for diversification and entrepreneurship. Effects of the crisis have also manifested beyond the individual with social policy adjustments occurring which challenge social rights.
That unemployed people are 'better off on the dole' is a view frequently expressed in media debates about the current crisis in the Irish labour market. It is a common conclusion that more cuts to welfare payments are required to preserve financial incentives to employment.
But the issue is a complicated one. Low paid workers frequently work less than 'full time' hours, and in sectors such as retail and hospitality, the flexibility demanded by employers can mean hours vary. For a significant minority, reliance on 'secondary benefits' further complicates the assessment of returns from employment. Medical card eligibility and childcare costs can be important considerations for those with children. In addition, the conditions governing eligibility for different welfare payments may shape participation decisions. The interaction of these various factors can mean that income security is far from guaranteed for low paid employees.
This presentation considers financial incentives for low paid workers, what issues arise, and are likely to arise, given the current direction of policy on social welfare, tax, and low pay.
Bertrand Maître and Brian Nolan
Ireland experienced unprecedented economic growth from the mid-1990s to late 2007, before entering into the current deep recession with dramatically rising unemployment and falling incomes. This presentation focuses on the impact of this macroeconomic roller-coaster ride on poverty and inequality. It gives an overview of the main trends in income inequality and poverty up to the crisis, including which groups benefited most from the period of growth, before focusing on the immediate impact of the crash, highlighting the specific groups of the population that are now most exposed to increasing vulnerability.
Fran McGinnity and Helen Russell
While the recession has understandably re-established unemployment as a central labour market issue, it is also of interest to understand how the economic downturn has affected the working conditions and well-being of those who remain in jobs. Not only is this important for measuring the impact of recession on individual well-being, but the welfare of employees has wider economic implications, as their productivity is essential for recovery. Using data from the NCPP/ESRI Changing Workplace Surveys 2003 and 2009 of over 5000 employees this paper explores the impact of the recession on employees' working conditions and on work pressure, as a key indicator of well-being.
In this paper we first explore changes in working conditions by comparing key results from the 2003 and 2009 surveys, and examining employees' perception of change in their organisations and jobs. We then focus on changes in work pressure. The potential impact of recession on work pressure is somewhat ambiguous. While staff cuts and job insecurity may lead to increased work pressure, if there is a reduced demand for services and produce, workers may be under less intense pressure. Finally we model work pressure among employees in 2009, and test the impact of organisational level change (staff cuts, organisational change) and factors such as perceived insecurity.
Based on the analysis of a unique sample of Polish migrants, the paper examines the risk of job loss, the determinants of unemployment spells and occupational and earnings mobility of Polish migrants during the recession. It is also explored how different experiences shape work attitudes and well-being of migrants.
The economic crisis that has struck Ireland and Spain in the last few years has shaken the economic and political foundations of both countries. One particularly interesting aspect of the crisis from the perspective of employment has been the response of trade union movements in Ireland and Spain to the crisis. Trade unions in both countries have entered into alliances with the public authorities and engaged in social dialogue at the level of the firm in order to promote the competitiveness of the countries and to safeguard jobs and the quality of employment. In this presentation outlines what institutional, political, and economic factors explain the differing responses of Irish and Spanish trade unions to the economic crisis and will also outline an agenda for future research.
This presentation will draw on the new publication Financial Exclusion and Over-indebtedness in Irish Households (Russell, Maitre & Donnelly, 2011). While access to credit is an important element of modern economies the unprecedented growth in personal debt in Ireland in recent years is a cause for concern, since it is now coupled with severe economic recession, high levels of job loss and significant cuts in household income. Using data from the special module of 2008 EU SILC Survey carried out by the CSO this presentation will examine over-indebtedness in Irish households. We adopt the following definition of over-indebtedness "People are overindebted if their net resources (income and realisable assets) render them persistently unable to meet essential living expenses and debt repayments as they fall due." (Stamp 2009). Using EU recommendations, a composite measure of over-indebtedness is constructed based on persistent arrears, payment burden and illiquidity (inability to raise resources from other sources). The paper will present analysis of the characteristics of households that are overindebted as well as the factors that trigger over-indebtedness.
The analysis shows that there is a strong connection between low income, poverty and overindebtedness. Over-indebted households also have a higher rate of basic deprivation (which includes a lack of basic consumption items such as clothes, food and heating as well as social participation), secondary deprivation (which includes a lack of household durables, car, ability to take a week's holidays away from home), environmental deprivation (which includes pollution, crime) and health deprivation (which includes limited activities due to health problems). These results suggest that income inadequacy rather than a high level of personal consumption is a key factor in over-indebtedness.
This presentation questions the current national moral panic about emigration. Since the 1980s one feature of emigration is the relationship between education and emigration, and it is usually ignored that this continued through the Celtic Tiger years. In those years Polish immigration to Ireland showed features that are now common across Europe: new forms and motives for mobility amongst the well educated. In policy terms Poland's experience suggests strong lessons for what Irish governments must not do when confronted by mass emigration.